'좋아하기 때문에 옳다' 3
..... Continueing;
This section on p.11-13 has the answers for so what and bub zaa.
The Introduction ends at p.15 and the book, at p.499.
-----------
"The psychology of accurate intuition involves no magic. Perhaps the best short statement of it is by the Great Herbert Simon, who studied chest masters and showed that after the thousands of hours of practice they come to see the pieces on the board differently from the rest of us. You can feel Simon's impatince with the mythologizing of expert intuition when he writes:"The situation has provided a cue;this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. The intuition is nothing more and nothing less than a recognition."
We are not surprized when a two-year-old looks at a dog and says,"doggie!" because we are used to children to recognize and name things. Simon's point is that the miracles of expert intuition have the same character. Valid intuitions develope when experts have learned to recognize the familiar elements in a new situation and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it. Good intuitive judgements come to mind with the same immediacy as "doggie!"
"Unfortunately, professionals' intuitions do not all arise from true expertise. Many years ago I visited the chief investment officer of a large financial firm, who told me that he had just invested some tens of millions of dollars in the stock of Ford Motor Company. When I asked how he made that decision, he replied that he had recently attended an automobile show and had been impressed. "Boy, do they know how to make a car!" was his explanation.
He made it very clear that he trusted in his gut feeling and was satisfied with himself and with his decision. I found it remarkable that he had apparently not considered the one question that an economist would call relevant: Is Ford stock currently underpriced? Instead, he listened to his intuition;he liked the cars, he liked the company and he liked the idea of owning it's stock. From what I know about the accuracy of stck picking it is reasonable to believe that he did not know what he was doing.*
------------
* Now, you can see how titles can be used to attract readers so that they can read on and find a deeper new surprise, which is not possible to say in a few words. We need affect(feeling) heristics and reasoning; Syestem 1 of intuition and System 2 of reasoning. ie., "Thinking,fast and slow", a cute "how to" book style with hidden deeper theory.
------------
"The specific heuristics the Amos and I studied provide little help in understanding how the executive came to invest in Ford stock, but a broader conception of heuristics now exists, which now offers a good account. An impotant advance is that emotion now looms much larger in our understanding of intuitive judgements and choices than it did in the past. The executive decision would today be described as an example of the affect heuristic, where judgements and decisions are guided by feelings of liking or disliking, with little deliberation and reasoning.
--------------
"When confronted with a problem - choosing a chess move or deciding whether to invest in a stock - the machinery of intuitive thought does the best it can. If the the individual has relevant expertise, sh will recognize the situation, and the intuitive solution that comes to her mind is likely to be correct. This is what happens when a chess master looks at a complex position: the few moves that immediately occur to him
are all strong. When the question is difficult and a skilled solution is not available, intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly - but it is not the answer to the original queastiion. The question the executive faced (should I invest in Ford stock?) was difficult, but the answer to an easier and related question(do I like Ford cars?) came readily to his mind and determined his choice. This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution(hence a poorer choice;mine).
Spontaneous search for an intuitive solution sometimes fails - neither an expert solution nor a heristic answer comes to mind.
In such cases, we often find ourselves switching to a slower, more deliberate and effortful form of thinking. This is the slow thinking of the title. Fast thinking includes both variants of intuitive thought- the expert and the heuristic - as well as the entirely automatic mental activities of perception and memory, the operations that enable you to know where there is a lamp on the desk or retrieve the name of the cappital of Russia."
This section on p.11-13 has the answers for so what and bub zaa.
The Introduction ends at p.15 and the book, at p.499.
-----------
"The psychology of accurate intuition involves no magic. Perhaps the best short statement of it is by the Great Herbert Simon, who studied chest masters and showed that after the thousands of hours of practice they come to see the pieces on the board differently from the rest of us. You can feel Simon's impatince with the mythologizing of expert intuition when he writes:"The situation has provided a cue;this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. The intuition is nothing more and nothing less than a recognition."
We are not surprized when a two-year-old looks at a dog and says,"doggie!" because we are used to children to recognize and name things. Simon's point is that the miracles of expert intuition have the same character. Valid intuitions develope when experts have learned to recognize the familiar elements in a new situation and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it. Good intuitive judgements come to mind with the same immediacy as "doggie!"
"Unfortunately, professionals' intuitions do not all arise from true expertise. Many years ago I visited the chief investment officer of a large financial firm, who told me that he had just invested some tens of millions of dollars in the stock of Ford Motor Company. When I asked how he made that decision, he replied that he had recently attended an automobile show and had been impressed. "Boy, do they know how to make a car!" was his explanation.
He made it very clear that he trusted in his gut feeling and was satisfied with himself and with his decision. I found it remarkable that he had apparently not considered the one question that an economist would call relevant: Is Ford stock currently underpriced? Instead, he listened to his intuition;he liked the cars, he liked the company and he liked the idea of owning it's stock. From what I know about the accuracy of stck picking it is reasonable to believe that he did not know what he was doing.*
------------
* Now, you can see how titles can be used to attract readers so that they can read on and find a deeper new surprise, which is not possible to say in a few words. We need affect(feeling) heristics and reasoning; Syestem 1 of intuition and System 2 of reasoning. ie., "Thinking,fast and slow", a cute "how to" book style with hidden deeper theory.
------------
"The specific heuristics the Amos and I studied provide little help in understanding how the executive came to invest in Ford stock, but a broader conception of heuristics now exists, which now offers a good account. An impotant advance is that emotion now looms much larger in our understanding of intuitive judgements and choices than it did in the past. The executive decision would today be described as an example of the affect heuristic, where judgements and decisions are guided by feelings of liking or disliking, with little deliberation and reasoning.
--------------
"When confronted with a problem - choosing a chess move or deciding whether to invest in a stock - the machinery of intuitive thought does the best it can. If the the individual has relevant expertise, sh will recognize the situation, and the intuitive solution that comes to her mind is likely to be correct. This is what happens when a chess master looks at a complex position: the few moves that immediately occur to him
are all strong. When the question is difficult and a skilled solution is not available, intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly - but it is not the answer to the original queastiion. The question the executive faced (should I invest in Ford stock?) was difficult, but the answer to an easier and related question(do I like Ford cars?) came readily to his mind and determined his choice. This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution(hence a poorer choice;mine).
Spontaneous search for an intuitive solution sometimes fails - neither an expert solution nor a heristic answer comes to mind.
In such cases, we often find ourselves switching to a slower, more deliberate and effortful form of thinking. This is the slow thinking of the title. Fast thinking includes both variants of intuitive thought- the expert and the heuristic - as well as the entirely automatic mental activities of perception and memory, the operations that enable you to know where there is a lamp on the desk or retrieve the name of the cappital of Russia."
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